CAPITOL LETTERThe Keystone Cause
Specter's partisan switch was made in Pennsylvania.
"Good riddance," crowed the National Republican Campaign Committee, but that sentiment doesn't come close to summing up the reaction among most Senate Republicans to losing Arlen Specter, a stalwart in Beltway politics for more than a quarter century. The GOP is putting up a brave front, claiming that Pennsylvania voters will have a clear choice now that "left-leaning" Republican-in-name-only Specter is out of the closet.
Still, the reaction from Olympia Snowe, now one of barely a half dozen moderate Republicans left in the Senate, might be more accurate. "For me personally and then for the party, its devastating," Snowe told CNN.
The reaction among Democrats, now so very close to a filibusterproof 60-vote majority in the Senate, was understandably more upbeat. "What must Norm Coleman be thinking?" chuckled one Democrat I talked to. "He's fighting to the death to keep the Democrats from getting to 60. He's a former Democrat turned Republican—and he's outfoxed by a Republican turned Democrat. It's all just too funny."
Funny, yes, and seriously Machiavellian, claims one GOP source, who attributes Specter's surprise defection to a Biden-Rendell bank shot. Vice President Joe Biden is from Scranton, Pa., and Ed Rendell is governor of Pennsylvania, ties that put them solidly in Specter's orbit. Biden spent the last three decades in the Senate and knows Specter well. They served together on the Judiciary Committee back in the day when they along with many others made fools of themselves grilling Anita Hill. The self-interest of the Obama-Biden administration in getting that 60th vote in the Senate is self-evident. It changes the calculus for everything going forward (health-care reform, judicial nominations) if Democrats have a filibusterproof majority in the Senate.
Then there's Rendell, whose personal ties to Specter are extensive, but who also has a political stake in seeing him hold his seat in Pennsylvania. Rendell once worked for Specter and regards him as something of a mentor; they're friends. For Rendell, a gregarious, ambitious politician, a Senate seat would cap his career as a former mayor and popular two-term governor. Those who know Rendell say he really wants the seat that Specter holds but would not run against his friend. The scenario that was unfolding had Specter losing in the Republican primary to Club for Growth President Pat Toomy, the favorite of Pennsylvania's conservative Republican base, and then had Toomy losing to a Democrat in November 2010. The Democrat suiting up for that task was Rep. Joe Sestak, a retired Navy admiral in his second term, eager to move up, and at 57 years of age, young enough to stake a claim on the seat.
A Sestak candidacy would derail Rendell's future plans. Keeping Specter in the seat at his age, which is 79, makes it far more likely that the seat would open up in the kind of timetable Rendell would hope for.
There were reports late Tuesday that the Republicans might try to draft former Pennsylvania governor Tom Ridge to run against Specter, that the GOP would not go quietly into the political night. But even Ridge would have to get by Toomy and the far-right brigades in the primary. A Republican source says Specter met with conservative groups last week to complain about the Toomy challenge, and how it was eroding his ability to keep the seat for the party. He was treated dismissively. "That's our base," they said, apparently not realizing Specter would consider leaving the GOP.
For Specter, the decision to switch parties is a no-brainer. There will not be a Republican majority in Congress in his lifetime, and if Specter earns the trust of the Democrats by voting with them on a few key procedural votes to get over the 60-vote threshold, he may get the coveted chair of the Judiciary Committee, where he is now ranking member, in time to shepherd Supreme Court nominations for President Obama.
Whatever Rendell did to get Specter to this point, their political futures are now inextricably bound together. And if there's any politician you want on your side in a knife fight, it's Rendell. He is the closest thing to a ward boss in Pennsylvania. He can clear the field for Specter, gin up the enthusiastic support and help raise the kind of money Specter will need. And then, in due time, it will be Rendell's turn.
Specter's Surprise = 60 Senators
Republican strategist Scott Reed said: "I always thought Specter would consider switching to become an independent to get re-elected, and it's too bad that Michael Steele pushed him into the Democrat Party."The conservative right-wing Republican Leadership has again overplayed their hand and done it much, much too early. They caused their own total loss of the slim hope they had of curbing the Democrats complete control of Congress and forced one of their own - a party leader - across the aisle. - "Good riddance," crowed the National Republican Campaign Committee, but that sentiment doesn't come close to summing up the reaction among most Senate Republicans to losing Arlen Specter, a stalwart in Beltway politics for more than a quarter century. The GOP is putting up a brave front, claiming that Pennsylvania voters will have a clear choice now that "left-leaning" Republican-in-name-only Specter is out of the closet.
Still, the reaction from Olympia Snowe, now one of barely a half dozen moderate Republicans left in the Senate, might be more accurate. "For me personally and then for the party, its devastating," Snowe told CNN.
The reaction among Democrats, now so very close to a filibusterproof 60-vote majority in the Senate, was understandably more upbeat. "What must Norm Coleman be thinking?" chuckled one Democrat I talked to. "He's fighting to the death to keep the Democrats from getting to 60. He's a former Democrat turned Republican—and he's outfoxed by a Republican turned Democrat. It's all just too funny."
Funny, yes, and seriously Machiavellian, claims one GOP source, who attributes Specter's surprise defection to a Biden-Rendell bank shot. Vice President Joe Biden is from Scranton, Pa., and Ed Rendell is governor of Pennsylvania, ties that put them solidly in Specter's orbit. Biden spent the last three decades in the Senate and knows Specter well. They served together on the Judiciary Committee back in the day when they along with many others made fools of themselves grilling Anita Hill. The self-interest of the Obama-Biden administration in getting that 60th vote in the Senate is self-evident. It changes the calculus for everything going forward (health-care reform, judicial nominations) if Democrats have a filibusterproof majority in the Senate.
Then there's Rendell, whose personal ties to Specter are extensive, but who also has a political stake in seeing him hold his seat in Pennsylvania. Rendell once worked for Specter and regards him as something of a mentor; they're friends. For Rendell, a gregarious, ambitious politician, a Senate seat would cap his career as a former mayor and popular two-term governor. Those who know Rendell say he really wants the seat that Specter holds but would not run against his friend. The scenario that was unfolding had Specter losing in the Republican primary to Club for Growth President Pat Toomy, the favorite of Pennsylvania's conservative Republican base, and then had Toomy losing to a Democrat in November 2010. The Democrat suiting up for that task was Rep. Joe Sestak, a retired Navy admiral in his second term, eager to move up, and at 57 years of age, young enough to stake a claim on the seat.
A Sestak candidacy would derail Rendell's future plans. Keeping Specter in the seat at his age, which is 79, makes it far more likely that the seat would open up in the kind of timetable Rendell would hope for.
There were reports late Tuesday that the Republicans might try to draft former Pennsylvania governor Tom Ridge to run against Specter, that the GOP would not go quietly into the political night. But even Ridge would have to get by Toomy and the far-right brigades in the primary. A Republican source says Specter met with conservative groups last week to complain about the Toomy challenge, and how it was eroding his ability to keep the seat for the party. He was treated dismissively. "That's our base," they said, apparently not realizing Specter would consider leaving the GOP.
For Specter, the decision to switch parties is a no-brainer. There will not be a Republican majority in Congress in his lifetime, and if Specter earns the trust of the Democrats by voting with them on a few key procedural votes to get over the 60-vote threshold, he may get the coveted chair of the Judiciary Committee, where he is now ranking member, in time to shepherd Supreme Court nominations for President Obama.
Whatever Rendell did to get Specter to this point, their political futures are now inextricably bound together. And if there's any politician you want on your side in a knife fight, it's Rendell. He is the closest thing to a ward boss in Pennsylvania. He can clear the field for Specter, gin up the enthusiastic support and help raise the kind of money Specter will need. And then, in due time, it will be Rendell's turn.
Specter's Surprise = 60 Senators
Specter Switchs Political Party - Now a Democrat
April 28, 2009, 12:13 pm
By Carl HulseDoug Mills/The New York Times
Senator Arlen Specter was surrounded by reporters on Tuesday after it was announced that he will switch parties.Senator Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania said on Tuesday he would switch to the Democratic party, presenting Democrats with a possible 60th vote and the power to break Senate filibusters as they try to advance the Obama administration’s new agenda.In a statement issued about noon as the Capitol was digesting the stunning turn of events, Mr. Specter said he had concluded that his party had moved too far to the right, a fact demonstrated by the migration of 200,000 Pennsylvania Republicans to the Democratic Party.“I now find my political philosophy more in line with Democrats than Republicans,” Mr. Specter said, acknowledging that his decision was certain to disappoint colleagues and supporters.If Al Franken prevails in his ongoing court case in Minnesota and Mr. Specter begins caucusing with Democrats, Democrats would have 60 votes and the ability to deny Republicans the chance to stall legislation. Mr. Specter was one of only three Republicans to support President Obama’s economic recovery legislation.The news shocked Senate Republicans, who had been hanging on to their ability to block legislation by a thread. Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the Republican leader, called an emergency meeting of party leaders who had no forewarning of Mr. Specter’s plans.
Senator McConnell has spent a wad of money in Minnesota that is now totally lost with this switch. McConnell has been the one right wing Republican tyrant leading the charge against Specter with his belligerent and public support for the Republican Pat Toomey as Specter’s PA opponent. McConnell along with RNC Party Chair Michael Steele have pushed Specter into the Democratic Party – will the Republican Party decide to be a permanent minority party but pure right conservatives and will hey also push more of their elected members out? The Democrats are singing “Happy Days are here again.” - Denny Roberge On Capitol Hill, Mr. Specter arrived for a vote shortly after noon with his wife, and said he would be lunching in the private Senate dining room rather than joining either of the weekly party policy lunches that were being held.Democrats were jubilant about the development.President Obama was handed a note from an aide at 10:25 a.m. on Tuesday during his daily economic briefing. The note, according to a senior administration official, said: “Specter is announcing he is changing parties.”Seven minutes later, Mr. Obama reached Mr. Specter by telephone. In a brief conversation, the president said: “You have my full support,” according to the official who heard the phone call. The president added that we are “thrilled to have you.”“We will welcome him with open arms,” said Senator Debbie Stabenow, Democrat of Michigan.Mr. Specter faced a primary challenge from former Republican Congressman Pat Toomey and polls showed him trailing Mr. Toomey. But he had previously resisted overtures to join the Democrats.Doug Mills/The New York Times Mr. Specter’s announcement shocked Senate Republicans.“Since my election in 1980, as part of the Reagan Big Tent, the Republican Party has moved far to the right. Last year, more than 200,000 Republicans in Pennsylvania changed their registration tobecome Democrats,” Mr. Specter said in a statement released in the early afternoon. “I now find my political philosophy more in line with Democrats than Republicans.”He said he has experienced a change of heart since the response to his vote for the stimulus legislation.“Since then, I have traveled the State, talked to Republican leaders and office-holders and my supporters and I have carefully examined public opinion,” his statement said. “It has become clear to me that the stimulus vote caused a schism which makes our differences irreconcilable. On this state of the record, I am unwilling to have my twenty-nine year Senate record judged by the Pennsylvania Republican primary electorate.”Mr. Specter, who has a history of finding his own way in the Senate, said he would not be a guaranteed vote for Democratic initiatives and he declared that he would remain opposed to a top labor priority – legislation that would make it easier to unionize American workplaces.“Whatever my party affiliation, I will continue to be guided by President Kennedy’s statement that sometimes party asks too much,” Mr. Specter said. “When it does, I will continue my independent voting and follow my conscience on what I think is best for Pennsylvania and America.”Senator John McCain, Republican of Arizona and a man with his own history of breaking with his party, expressed regret and said he had no indication that Mr. Specter would change parties. But Mr. McCain said he understood the reason for Mr. Specter’s shift: “It’s pretty obvious the polls show him well behind his primary opponent.”Michael Steele, the chairman of the Republican National Committee, did not mince words about the senator, saying Mr. Specter “didn’t leave the G.O.P. based on principles of any kind. He left to further his personal political interests because he knew that he was going to lose a Republican primary due to his left-wing voting record. Republicans look forward to beating Senator Specter in 2010, assuming the Democrats don’t do it first.”But Senator Olympia Snowe of Maine, who also supported the Obama administration’s economic stimulus legislation, said Mr. Specter’s decision reflected the increasingly inhospitable climate in the Republican party for moderates.“On the national level of the Republican Party, we haven’t certainly heard warm, encouraging words about how they view moderates, either you are with us or against us,” Ms. Snowe said. She said national Republican leaders were not grasping that “political diversity makes a party stronger and ultimately we are heading to having the smallest political tent in history for any political party the way things are unfolding.”Senator Jon Kyl of Arizona, the No. 2 Republican in the Senate, called the decision “a real problem.”Mr. Specter, who has had serious health problems in recent years, remains active on a variety of major issues and has been a leading advocate for increased funding for health care research.Democrats called the decision a game-changer. “It helps on everything,” said Senator Dianne Feinstein, Democrat of California. “This is a substantial change.”Democrats said they made no promises to Mr. Specter about committee positions or other incentives to switch, but the party can provide significant campaign support and deter other Democratic candidates from running against him in the primary next year.The turnabout was reminiscent of the decision in 2001 by Senator Jim Jeffords of Vermont to leave the Republican party and become an independent, handing control of the Senate back to Democrats just as President George W. Bush’s first term was beginning. The Jeffords switch flipped party control but some Democrats said Mr. Specter’s move could be just as consequential given the Senate’s recent struggles with filibusters.“Specter’s decision could be more consequential because it came just as the Senate was beginning work on health care reform,” said Senator Ron Wyden, Democrat of Oregon. “Specter’s decision is a big impact decision.”Mr. Specter’s move to the Democratic column is likely to have a chilling effect on other potential Democratic candidates for the Senate. So far, Joseph Torsella, former head of the National Constitution Center and a former deputy mayor of Philadelphia, is the only Democrat to have declared his candidacy.Others with higher name recognition seem to have been holding back to see how the field would shape up. Even before Mr. Specter announced his switch today, Representative Allyson Schwartz, a Democrat representing parts of Philadelphia and the nearby suburbs, had told The New York Times she was unlikely to make the run. Other possibilities, including Representatives Patrick Murphy and Joe Sestak, had also stayed mum.Gov. Edward G. Rendell, a Democrat, and Vice President Joseph Biden, both of them long-time friends of Mr. Specter, had urged him to switch parties several weeks ago but Mr. Specter declined. Mr. Rendell said in a recent interview that he had promised Mr. Specter that if he became a Democrat, he would help him raise money; Mr. Specter joked that if he became a Democrat, he wouldn’t need Mr. Rendell’s help on that front.There had been speculation in Pennsylvania political circles that something was afoot because Mr. Torsella, a close colleague of Mr. Rendell, said little about Mr. Specter when he announced his candidacy.But Mr. Specter put the kibosh on talk that he might leave the Republican Party and become either a Democrat or an independent, insisting, though without much evidence, that there was room in the Republican Party for moderates.The move brings Mr. Specter full circle with his earlier political leanings. He was a registered Democrat when he first ran for district attorney of Philadelphia in the mid-1960s, though he ran on the Republican line.SNAP ANALYSIS: Specter defection a sharp blow to RepublicansTue Apr 28, 2009 6:37pm BSTBy Steve HollandWASHINGTON (Reuters) - Senator Arlen Specter's abrupt move to switch allegiance to President Barack Obama's Democratic Party was a sharp blow to Republicans and will likely generate more soul-searching for the minority party.His decision to seek re-election as a Democrat next year was a nakedly political move to hang on to power.* If he had remained a Republican, he faced a tough challenge for the party's nomination in Pennsylvania's 2010 Senate race from conservative Pat Toomey. The moderate Specter beat Toomey in a tight primary in 2004 but faced an even tougher battle this time.* As far as the Republican base was concerned, his biggest Achilles' heel was his support for Obama's $787 billion economic stimulus bill. That bill passed the U.S. Congress in February with support from only three Republicans -- Specter and Maine senators Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe.* Specter's announcement sharply criticized Republicans, who lost control of the U.S. Congress in 2006, and lost the White House and more seats in Congress in 2008. "I now find my political philosophy more in line with Democrats than Republicans," his statement said.* Republicans have been trying to figure out how to rebuild as a party. Some leading figures, such as strategist Steve Schmidt, who ran John McCain's presidential campaign last year, have said the party needs to have a more open-arms policy, and be more welcoming of gays and immigrants.* Republican strategist John Feehery said Republican leaders in the Senate did all they could to hang on to Specter. More broadly, however, he said: "What it says about the party is they have to make a determination on whether they want to be in the majority or whether they want to be intellectually pure."* The new chairman of the Republican National Committee, Michael Steele, has his work cut out for him. He has his share of critics. Steele said after Specter, Collins and Snowe voted for the stimulus plan that perhaps the Republican Party should not provide funds to help them win their re-election bids. "Oh, yes, I'm always open to everything, baby, absolutely," Steele told the Fox News Channel in February.* Republican strategist Scott Reed said: "I always thought Specter would consider switching to become an independent to get re-elected, and it's too bad that Michael Steele pushed him into the Democrat Party."
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